The output of shale oil is expected to be disagreed. The future production of shale oil is closely related to the recoverable reserves, technological progress, oil price, drilling rig and completion number. By 2022 it may be more than 6 million barrels per day. The OPEC forecast for shale oil in the United States in 2022 was 7 million 400 thousand barrels per day (2 million 700 thousand barrels per day higher than in 2016). Tight oil production of oil price elasticity: the price of $60 under the neutral hypothesis, shale oil production may rise to about 5 million 500 thousand barrels a day in 2020 after the flat. Based on the hypothesis of different oil prices, the output fluctuation of shale oil in the next 5 years may be in the 4 million ~7 million barrel / day interval, which has a great impact on the balance of supply and demand in the future.
Shale oil companies are generally faced with cash flow constraints. From the point of 2017Q2, WTI average price of $48 oil corresponding capital expenditures of approximately $15 / barrel, free cash flow of approximately $-20, with the price of oil rose oil service costs will be further enhanced, which is expected to maintain the output of capital expenditure will be more, mean prices under $70, free cash flow is negative.